Ah, spring. The time of year when a young man's thoughts turn to our national pastime, and the prospects of his beloved Phillies ending their now 13 year playoff drought. What, that's just me? Ok then, here are my thoughts heading into the regular season, which starts next Monday, with John Lieber facing off against the Ghost of Chris Carpenter at Citizens Bank Park.
Like everybody else, I'm not worried as much about the offense as the pitching. Third base and catching appear to be the weak spots in the offense, but I think the Phillies will do better than expected, with Abraham Nunez taking most of the time at third and with Mike Lieberthal showing he still has some juice left in the tank in what will likely be his last season in Philadelphia (trivia of the day: Lieberthal is Philadelphia's longest tenured pro athlete).
The pitching concerns me, though. With Ryan Madson moved to the starting rotation, where he has only one career start (in which he didn't even make it out of the first inning, if my memory serves me correct), the Phils lack any kind of reliable middle relief pitcher. What we're looking at is a competition for the job between some aging has-beens (Julio Santana, Rheal Cormier), some never-weres with wasted potential (Chris Booker, Aquilino Lopez, Ricardo Rodriguez), and guys who would be better served with some more time in the minor leagues (Eude Brito, Rob Tejeda, Geoff Geary).
And don't get me started on the starting rotation. Brett Myers is going to be an ace eventually, but other than that, what have we got? Jon Lieber and Cory Lidle's inconsistency (although I have to give props to Lieber for winning 17 games last year despite that horrid stretch he had in June and July), Ryan Madson's unproven capabilities (he was great as a relief pitcher, but who knows how he will be as a starter?), and Ryan Franklin, who replaces the ultimate symbol of wasted potential, Vicente Padilla, who was traded to Texas for nothing. I fail to see how Franklin is an improvement over Padilla, who was actually an All-Star several years ago, but whatever. My guess is that by the end of July some big trade goes down and the Phillies will get either a better starter or a better third baseman, and Franklin will be gone, possibly replaced by Randy Wolf, who's waiting in the wings for his replaced arm joint to get up to speed.
On the bright side, the Phillies are going to score a ton of runs. They have at least four guys capable of 30 homers and 100 RBI in Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, and Ryan Howard, and between Utley, Abreu, Jimmy Rollins, and Aaron Rowand, they should steal a ton of bases as well. For better or for worse, they'll live and die by the long ball, and the question is whether or not their pitching can sustain them on the days when the balls aren't flying out of the park, or when they play in Atlanta or San Diego.
My prediction? They can easily win the division if the pitching holds up, but without a major trade, I don't see that happening. Realistically, they'll probably fall just short of the wild card again (and for the record, I'm predicting Atlanta wins the division again after the Mets find a way to implode again despite their big flashy acquisitions), although there's still a part of me that sees them winning 100 games and breezing to a World Series title.
Call that the Philadelphian part.
2 comments:
HEY! Are you going to the home opener!
damn i could have easily just asked you this in an instant message. silly me.
I had to laugh at this. Because I'm pretty sure I was actually talking to you on aim WHEN YOU LEFT THIS COMMENT!
Anyway, the home opener happens to be on the first day of classes for the spring term (crazy Drexel schedule blah blah blah), and I have a class at 3 and 5:30, so no, I'm not going to the home opener.
Post a Comment